Monday, September 28, 2026 300 stories · 2403 outlet reports compared

Poll shows Talarico leading Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race

A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Friday shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 44% in the Texas Senate race, over a month before the November midterm elections.

By The Lumen desk · Sept 28, 2026 · 1 min read
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What we know
1 The TPOR poll was released Friday.
2 Talarico led Paxton 49% to 44%, with 3% supporting other candidates.
3 According to the Washington Examiner, the poll surveyed 1,007 likely Texas voters from Sept. 19-22 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%.
4 Ken Paxton is the sitting Texas Attorney General and the Republican candidate; James Talarico is the Democratic candidate.

A poll released Friday by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, by 5 points, according to center and right-leaning outlets.

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The poll found Talarico with 49 percent support among voters and Paxton with 44 percent, with 3 percent supporting other candidates, according to The Hill and NewsNation.

According to the Washington Examiner, the poll surveyed 1,007 likely Texas voters from Sept. 19 to 22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent. The Washington Examiner also reported that Libertarian candidate Ted was included in the poll, though the excerpt describing his results was cut off.

The race is taking place over a month before the November midterm elections.

How each side covered it

Center

2 outlets
  • The Hill and NewsNation both reported Talarico leading Paxton by 5 points, 49% to 44%.
  • The Hill noted 3% of voters supported other candidates.
  • Coverage noted the poll came over a month before the November midterm elections.

“Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race poll” — The Hill

Right

2 outlets
  • Newsmax described Paxton's deficit as a narrow lead for Talarico.
  • The Washington Examiner reported the same 49%-44% result and included polling methodology details.
  • The Washington Examiner reported the poll surveyed 1,007 likely voters from Sept. 19-22 with a 3.6% margin of error.

“Talarico holds 5-point lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race, poll shows” — Washington Examiner

Questions readers ask

What happened in the Texas Senate race poll?

A poll released Friday by Texas Public Opinion Research showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 44% in the Texas Senate race, ahead of the November midterm elections.

Who conducted the poll and how large was it?

The poll was conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR). According to the Washington Examiner, it surveyed 1,007 likely Texas voters from Sept. 19 to 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%.

Who are the candidates in the race?

James Talarico is the Democratic candidate and Ken Paxton, the current Texas Attorney General, is the Republican candidate for the Texas Senate seat.

How did left-, center-, and right-leaning outlets cover this poll?

No left-leaning coverage was supplied. Center outlets like The Hill and NewsNation and right-leaning outlets like Newsmax and the Washington Examiner reported the same poll results, with the Washington Examiner adding methodological details.

Sources · 4 outlet reports

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